We believe the adjustments in real estate policies since August have arrived just in time to prevent housing sales from declining further. Following the Politburo meeting at the end of July that highlighted the major changes in supply and demand dynamics in China’s property market, a slew of measures was rolled out to adjust and optimize real estate policies, including a cut to the floor of down payment ratio on first- and second-home purchases, relaxed standards for identifying first-home mortgages across first-tier cities, and lower interest rates on existing mortgages. In our view, the implementation of such policies would unleash part of the pent-up demand from first-home buyers. September to date, new house and pre-owned home transactions in Beijing and Shanghai have increased considerably.

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• 2024年，国内上市银行零售业务增长乏力，个人金融条线资产增速放缓、营业收入进一步下滑。我们认为，住房按揭贷款规模下降和净息差持续收窄是造成银行零售条线营业收入持续承压的主要原因；
• 信用成本上升加剧了银行零售板块利润下滑的压力。与之相反的是，主要上市银行对公业务板块利润总额稳步提升，这主要是得益于持续收缩的信用减值损失；
• 银行零售板块盈利能力和盈利韧性出现分化，股份制银行和城商行个人金融条线表现弱于其他两类银行。